Looking ahead to the rest of 2026 and beyond
Phil Turnbull, APAL CEO, shared this update to industry in the Winter 2026 edition of AFG.
In my last report, I reviewed apple supply and demand over the past five years. The key takeaway was clear: household demand for apples has remained remarkably consistent, even as retail prices have moved significantly. Consumers remain strongly committed to buying apples and are prepared to pay a fair price for them.
The 2025 season reinforced this point. With a significantly reduced crop, competition for limited supply lifted prices paid to growers as retailers worked to secure enough fruit for consumers. This in turn increased average retail prices from around $4.20/kg* in July 2025 to more than $5.60/kg* by Christmas – an increase of around 33 per cent. For some apples, including Pink Lady, the increase was even more pronounced, with online prices on occasion at $7.10/kg*.
Given what we saw in 2025 and now that the harvest is over, we have a much clearer picture for the remainder of the season. In short, the outlook is positive. Supply is likely to remain tight, with total volume only marginally ahead of last year; quality, by all accounts, is good across the country; juice prices are at historic highs; and retail prices have remained at record levels throughout the year. All this should put growers in a stronger negotiation position.
Looking beyond this year, it is worth remembering what economics has taught us – supply and demand matters. Strong prices to growers over the last year or so are directly linked to less supply.
As always, we encourage growers to understand domestic supply and demand in their future planning.
APAL Industry Forum: Where Insight Drives Growth
These issues will be front and centre at the 2026 APAL Industry Forum on 27 July. Our focus remains firmly on providing growers with practical information, relevant insights and opportunities to improve profitability.
A key focus will be understanding the realities of today’s retail environment. We will assess growers’ relationships with the supermarkets, market dynamics, and the outlook for the year ahead. This discussion will be complemented by a practical session on the Food and Grocery Code of Conduct, which will explain how suppliers can improve their negotiation position.
The Forum will also explore one of the most talked about developments in the world today: artificial intelligence. Strategic foresight specialist Sami Mäkeläinen will demonstrate how AI can be applied in practical ways within orchard businesses, helping growers analyse information, improve efficiency, reduce the burden of compliance and support decision-making. These sessions will be complemented by presentations from futurist Simon Kuestenmacher, and agricultural consultant Dr Kate Burke who will share practical insights on adaptive planning during uncertain times.
The Forum Welcome Drinks on 26 July provide an opportunity to celebrate excellence across the Australian apple and pear sector as we present this year’s APAL Awards for Excellence. The 2026 Awards recognise outstanding leadership, innovation and service from growers, researchers and industry professionals across the country. Congratulations to Rosie Savio, Stephen Tancred, Paul Priest, Lauren Fankhauser, Alessio Scalisi, Damien Silm, Nardia Stacy and Nightingale Bros. You can read more about their achievements in this edition of AFG.
In-orchard support
Beyond events and recognition programs, APAL remains focused on delivering practical services directly to growers.
We recently delivered the APAL Short Course in Fruit Production, providing 25 emerging orchard managers with intensive training across orchard physiology, irrigation, nutrition, crop load management, pest and disease control, fruit quality and business planning.
The Future Orchards® Winter Series of orchard walks from 6–10 July focus on optimising chemical thinning and improving fruit quality outcomes.
Together, these initiatives demonstrate APAL’s commitment to providing practical, industry-led support that support growers directly. I encourage all growers to engage with these programs and also join us at the 2026 APAL Awards for Excellence Presentation and Industry Forum in Melbourne on 26 and 27 July.
This article was first published in the Winter 2026 edition of AFG.
