Positioning for a strong start to the harvest

As we head into the busy midsummer period, many growers have already been hard at work with cherries over recent months, and apples and pears are now rapidly coming into focus. It’s a time of immense activity across the country, with harvest preparations well underway and the challenges and opportunities of a new season starting to take shape. 

Encouragingly, the price of apples strengthened towards the end of this past season as national supply tightened and the market found its balance. With fruit moving steadily to meet market demands, some stability has returned to the category – a welcome shift after a period of sustained pressure. This dynamic also sets us up well for the year ahead, and we expect to enter the 2026 season without an overhang of fruit or prolonged storage carryover. New season apples will hit supermarket shelves early, fresh and in front of consumers when they’re most ready to buy. 

At the same time, reports of inconsistent blossom across some regions have raised questions about the potential for the 2026 season. While it’s too early to draw concrete conclusions, we’ll continue to monitor the situation closely, and the Orchard Business Analysis (OBA), APAL Orchard Census and Crop Forecast work will help quantify how this variability may flow through to future production. 

A number of regions have also experienced dry or even drought-like conditions in recent months, and this may affect crop size, fruit storage and packouts as the season develops. As always, the weather at this time of year can be volatile and these pressures remind us how critical good planning, irrigation management, canopy health and timely execution are in protecting fruit quality. Despite these challenges, growers continue to demonstrate resilience and adaptability, and we remain optimistic that strong orchard management will help mitigate many of these risks. 

Insights from the recently published OBA Report detail that the 2025 forecast is showing a slight improvement in yield, though packouts remained below the long-term average, limiting Class 1 volumes. Hot, dry conditions affected colour development, contributing to lower packouts, while rising postharvest and operating costs continued to place upward pressure on the cost of production. Importantly, however, the OBA points to a modest return for 2025 – a significant shift after back-to-back years of losses, supported by strong prices for high-quality fruit and an early market clear-out of heat-affected varieties. While this recovery won’t erase the financial strain of recent seasons, it is a welcome improvement that supports confidence and enables growers to reinvest in their businesses. 

At our APAL AGM in November, we reflected on the year’s achievements and the industry’s priorities that remain front and centre. It was encouraging to acknowledge the solid progress made, particularly in mapping our national orchard base, strengthening market insights, and supporting growers with tools that enable better business decisions. 

Looking ahead, there is genuine reason for optimism. We have access to better data, technology and resources than ever before. We are entering the new season with clean shelves, good fruit quality and no lingering market saturation. We are strengthening our negotiation capability as an industry and, significantly, we now have market access to both China and Canada, two high-value, premium export markets with strong long-term potential. While building meaningful export programs will take time, it’s been encouraging to see the increased interest in these new pathways that will ultimately help diversify our market options and complement the domestic landscape. 

As harvest approaches, I encourage all growers to focus on what can be controlled: maintaining quality, making data-led decisions, and continuing to look for efficiency and improvements where they matter most. We have the foundation for a positive start to 2026, and while the year ahead will demand hard work and clear thinking, it also presents an opportunity – a chance to reset, rebuild confidence and put new season fruit in front of consumers at its very best. 

On behalf of the APAL team, I wish you all a safe, productive and successful harvest. 

This article was first published in the Summer 2025 edition of AFG.